Art & Culture

The Odds of Each Arab Team Winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup

BYYassine Hariss

June 9, 2026

The wait is almost over: the 2026 FIFA World Cup is set to kick off on June 11, launching a month-long tournament where 48 nations will battle for football’s most coveted prize.

Across 22 editions, only a handful of nations have shared the title. Brazil remains the most successful with five World Cups, followed by Germany and Italy with four each, Argentina with three, France and Uruguay with two, and England and Spain with one title apiece.

With that tally in mind, we’re hoping this year’s tournament challenges football’s long-standing status quo and finally sees a nation from outside Europe or South America lift the trophy. And with the competition expanding to 48 teams for the first time ever, the odds of an outsider making a deep run have arguably never been higher.

When it comes to our region, it’s in its strongest position ever. Between Morocco’s historic semi-final run during the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar, a record number of Arab nations qualifying for the tournament, and several teams arriving in arguably their strongest shape in years, there is a growing sense that the gap separating football’s traditional powerhouses from the rest of the world is beginning to shrink. Which got us thinking: what are the actual chances of an Arab nation lifting the World Cup?

It’s worth noting that no prior World Cup has featured as many Arab nations. In total, 8 teams from our region will make the trip across the Atlantic to the co-hosts United States, Mexico, and Canada. They are Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, and Jordan. And as the logic of probability dictates, the more teams you have represented, the greater your odds of success. But that doesn’t necessarily mean an Arab nation will lift the World Cup, though it does mean the region enters this edition with more chances—and perhaps more hope—than ever before.

But hope and probability are two different things. To find out, we turned to Opta Analyst, one of football’s most respected data platforms. Using 25,000 tournament simulations, the model estimated each nation’s chances of progressing through the competition and ultimately lifting the trophy.

Unsurprisingly, Morocco topped the list. Fresh off its historic semi-final run in Qatar and currently the highest-ranked African and Arab nation in FIFA’s rankings, the Atlas Lions are given a 23.5% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, a 10.6% chance of making it to the last four, a 4.6% chance of reaching the final, and a 1.9% chance of becoming the first Arab and African nation in history to win the World Cup.

Trailing just behind is Egypt, which Opta considers the second-most likely Arab nation to make a deep run this year. The Pharaohs are given a 10.9% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, a 3.7% chance of making the semi-finals, a 1.2% chance of reaching the final, and a 0.4% chance of lifting the trophy.

Next comes Algeria. According to the model, the Desert Foxes have a 7.3% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, a 2.5% chance of making the last four, a 0.8% chance of reaching the final, and a 0.2% chance of winning the World Cup outright. Qatar follows with a 4.8% chance of reaching the quarter-finals and a 1.1% chance of making the semi-finals. Their odds of reaching the final stand at just 0.2%, while Opta’s model gives them virtually no chance of lifting the trophy.

Not far behind are Tunisia, whose chances sit at 4.3% for the quarter-finals, 1.4% for the semi-finals, 0.4% for the final, and 0.1% for winning the tournament. Jordan comes next with a 3.8% chance of reaching the last eight, a 1.1% chance of making the semi-finals, a 0.3% chance of reaching the final, and a 0.1% chance of pulling off what would be one of the greatest upsets in football history.

Saudi Arabia posts near-identical numbers, with a 3.6% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, a 1.1% chance of making the semi-finals, a 0.3% chance of reaching the final, and a 0.1% chance of lifting the trophy. Then comes Iraq. The Lions of Mesopotamia are given a 3% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, a 0.9% chance of making the semi-finals, a 0.2% chance of reaching the final, and a 0.1% chance of winning the World Cup.

While none of the region’s representatives are actually expected to lift the trophy or trouble this year’s favorite, it is also true that football has a habit of making a fool out of predictions. On paper, Arab football remains an outsider. Then again, Morocco wasn’t supposed to reach the semi-finals four years ago either. Are the chances slim? Absolutely. Impossible? Not at all. After all, every football miracle starts life as a probability so small most people ignore it. And the next thing you know, the only thing standing between an Arab nation and history could just be six games, a bit of luck, and—judging by recent events—a smooth experience at border control as well.

The Odds of Each Arab Team Winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup

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The Odds of Each Arab Team Winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup

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